Greater Vancouver 2017 Real Estate Market Predictions
Nobody has a crystal ball, but after a number of conferences and hands on experience with what’s really going on, here are our predictions for the new year:
- Multiple changes may offset each other, causing prices to hold steady. Why? Many anticipate that the slightly softening prices and increasing interest rates, new FTHB loans, and low inventory will cancel each other out in terms of affordability, and the mix of federal and provincial announcements are offsetting. Furthermore, real estate is largely seasonal, especially in Greater Vancouver where we are affected by weather. Inventory is still at a record low generally across the board, and demand typically starts to increase in March. The decrease since the tax has been relatively modest, with the majority in the Tri-Cities (specifically detached homes) just taking us back to the prices at the beginning of the year (Jan 2016) and a number of areas where attached homes have stayed at a constant price or even increased. The interest rate increase will likely motivate a number of buyers to purchase sooner rather than later, with fears of their monthly payment increasing even more. The first time home buyer loan will also allow a number of first time home buyers to purchase, thus bringing more people in to the market – most likely the condo market.
- Your friends don’t laugh at you anymore when you Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, or Abbotsford. It’s no longer “PoCompton” as my sister and her friends would previously say. The suburban areas have been booming, and they’re super hot investment areas as more and more businesses arrive. Prices in these areas have risen significantly, and people are starting to think differently about these neighbourhoods as rapid transit and busses move closer to their borders. Metro Vancouver isn’t the only hot commodity anymore.
- If inventory continues to remain this low, the prices will hold. At the end of the day, people need homes and if they’ve already sold they’re going to be willing to pay whatever it takes to get in to the home they want. Inventory is at a record low and a number of sellers will be able to take advantage of this and continue to receive high prices.
- The detached home will continue to be the pot of gold. Sellers will continue to hoard their detached homes, and only the motivated sellers will move. A number of them will continue to put their home on the market with the contingency that they receive “their price” (which is probably ludacris), receive multiple offers all over asking, and still refuse to sell.
- Interest rates will continue to increase. The election of Donald Trump as US president and the new strict mortgage qualification rules are expected to continue to increase interest rates. As the big banks raise their rates (which they’ve already done), private lenders and others will most likely follow.
- The foreign buyers with money will continue to buy. We’ve attended a number of conferences after the foreign buyer tax implementation, and the majority of realtors that work with foreign buyers say that although the tax is a disappointment to their clients, at the end of the day the real estate back in their country is still far more expensive than the real estate here. Furthermore, they are willing to pay for a better quality home, in a beautiful city, with views, mountains, oceans, clean air, and a better quality of living.
- The number of realtors will likely decrease. This has already started to happen, while the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver was at over 14,000 realtors in 2015, they have now dropped down to the low 13,000’s. While the market was blazing hot, a number of people got in to real estate thinking they could make easy money. They rode the wave, and as the market began to soften after the foreign buyer tax implementation, the board began to see member numbers decrease. The harder the job is perceived, the less ‘wave riders’ and part timers the profession tends to see, which is actually better for the client because there’s a higher likelihood of you working with a full time, professional, experienced agent. Yippee!
- The rental market continues to be bananas! With prices so high, a lot of rental properties are being sold. Tenants are kicked out. Rents increase. Tenants are frustrated. It has become almost impossible to live in Metro Vancouver unless you’re pooling your rent between roommates or have wicked coin.
- People will continue to hate on the real estate market. Although the media does have some validity when it comes to real estate, I’m going to be honest and let you know that they really don’t help my job. They generalize, and don’t look at individual subareas, individual markets… basically individual anything. They’ll do their annual “the sky is falling” coverage in the busy spring/summer market, and people freak out. I can guarantee that the sky is in fact, not falling.
I’m also going to predict that the BRIDGEWELL team will TAKE OVER 2017:
- Buyers and Sellers will realize that not all realtors are scummy, and that buying and selling real estate doesn’t have to suck. There are smart, caring, educated, patient, competent, and most of all super cool/fun people that can help make your real estate process one of the best memories of your life… and that’s where we come in!
- Systems Work – and we’ve spent all of December perfecting our systems, expanding our online business, and basically doing everything we can to provide a better service to our clients. We will be more efficient and more helpful, ultimately making your experience top notch!
- We will continue to dominate in real estate marketing, sell houses for more money than other realtors, and we will win a disproportionate amount of bidding wars – even when we don’t offer the highest price. Negotiation skills win – always.
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